The Prediction and Its Implications

Yahoo Finance UK (2026) reports that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan are expected to outperform Lloyds in 2026, driven by fees from the SpaceX IPO and other high-profile tech IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI. This suggests a shift in banking sector performance, with US institutions benefiting from strong investment banking activity.

The article highlights the diversified revenue models of these US banks, which include wealth management, trading, and underwriting — areas where Lloyds is less competitive. For VCs and private-market investors, this could signal a broader trend: the growing importance of investment banking in shaping returns for tech-driven ventures.

Why This Matters for Funds and Founders

For venture capital funds, the performance of major banks can influence deal flow and exit opportunities. A strong investment banking sector often correlates with higher valuations and more active M&A activity, both of which benefit founders seeking liquidity or expansion.

Founders should pay attention because the success of firms like JP Morgan may indicate stronger support for high-growth tech companies. This could mean better access to capital, more favorable terms, and increased visibility for startups aiming to go public or secure large-scale funding rounds.

LPs evaluating funds should consider how well their portfolio companies align with the trends highlighted in the report. If US banks are seeing increased revenue from tech IPOs, it may suggest a more robust ecosystem for later-stage investments.

Key Takeaways for the Private Markets

  • The SpaceX IPO and others are likely to generate significant underwriting fees for US banks, boosting their performance relative to European peers like Lloyds.
  • Diversified revenue models give US banks an edge in volatile markets, offering more stability for investors.
  • Founders and VCs should monitor bank performance as a potential indicator of broader market conditions for tech startups.

What to Do Next

Keep an eye on the IPO pipeline and track how major banks are positioned to benefit from it.